FOMC, 연내 테이퍼링 가능성 언급 (tapering)

테이퍼링(tapering)이란?

연방준비제도(Fed)가 양적완화 정책의 규모를 점진적으로 축소해나가는 것. 출구전략의 일종이다.

 

18일 공개된 FOMC의사록에 연내 테이퍼링을 할 가능성이 있다고 밝혔습니다.

 

실제 의사록에 있는 내용을 보면

 Almost 60 percent of respondents anticipated the first reduction in the pace of net asset purchases to come in January, though, on average, respondents placed somewhat more weight than in the June surveys on the possibility of tapering beginning somewhat earlier.

6월 FOMC보다 7월 FOMC에 테이퍼링의 시기가 1월보다 더 일찍 실행해야한다는 의견이 많아졌음을 나타내고 있습니다.

 

또한

All participants assessed that the economy had made progress toward the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals since the adoption of the guidance on asset purchases in December. Most participants judged that the Committee's standard of "substantial further progress" toward the maximum-employment goal had not yet been met. At the same time, most participants remarked that this standard had been achieved with respect to the price-stability goal. A few participants noted, however, that the transitory nature of this year's rise in inflation, as well as the recent declines in longer-term yields and in market-based measures of inflation compensation, cast doubt on the degree of progress that had been made toward the price-stability goal since December. Looking ahead, most participants noted that, provided that the economy were to evolve broadly as they anticipated, they judged that it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year because they saw the Committee's "substantial further progress" criterion as satisfied with respect to the price-stability goal and as close to being satisfied with respect to the maximum-employment goal. Various participants commented that economic and financial conditions would likely warrant a reduction in coming months. Several others indicated, however, that a reduction in the pace of asset purchases was more likely to become appropriate early next year because they saw prevailing conditions in the labor market as not being close to meeting the Committee's "substantial further progress" standard or because of uncertainty about the degree of progress toward the price-stability goal. Participants agreed that the Committee would provide advance notice before making changes to its balance sheet policy.

연준은 12월에 자산매입에 관한 지침이 채택된 이후 경제가 위원회의 최대고용과 물가안정목표를 향해 진전을 이루었다고 평가했습니다.

그리고 자신들이 정한 기준에 추가적인 진전이 있으면 테이퍼링을 할 수 있다고 하였습니다.

 

현재 테이퍼링을 하기위한 물가상승률은 충족이 되었다고 밝혔습니다.

하지만 고용률이 목표치에 대한 추가적인 진전을 달성하지는 못했다고 밝혔습니다. 하지만 대부분의 참가자들이 앞으로 경기가 예상대로 폭넓게 성장할 경우 연내 테이퍼링이 적절하다고 판단했다고 언급하였습니다.

소수의 몇몇인원들은 고용률의 불확실성에 때문에 내년초에 테이퍼링의 실시가 적절하다고 언급했습니다.

 

 

위 언급을 볼때 고용률이 목표치에 상당한 추가진전을 달성한다면 연내 테이퍼링이 실시될 가능성이 높을것 같습니다.

 

다음에 있을 FOMC를 주목해 보아야 할 것 같습니다.